Disqualified from "you_gonna_get_raped" since rape has already taken place.

It's not that simple. The bodypaint suggests that she was raped by multiple men and they took turns tagging her. It is currently this guy's turn. Also, he looks too clean to have just finished, so there is indeed going to be another rape.

There is a specific name for this "tally mark wrie on body" fetish. Does anybody know it?

The tag was originally concieved as a way to tag amusing threatening/menacing posts like post #82833 or post #344266, but has seemingly since evolved to a broader use.

Regardless, I'd wager any post where shit has already hit the fan to not be fit for the tag as it's kind of defeating the "looming threat" idea behind the tag as outlined in the wiki.

I see your point, but as this type of situation is rare I say we keep the tag. Either that or add a "you_gonna_get_raped_again" but that probably won't get much use.